Wednesday, December 29, 2004
Friday, December 24, 2004
I remember meeting Louis Borders on the eve of WebVan's launch. He showed us the workstations they would use to track the locations of their delivery trucks. In fact, I think I saw one of those trucks yesterday in Austin, but the WebVan logo had been replaced with that of a local florist. Good luck, Ocado!
Thursday, December 23, 2004
"—Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)
Wired editor Chris Anderson ... managed to sell The Long Tail to Hyperion for just over $500,000. It's a book-length version of a meditation he wrote for his own magazine about the end of the 'mainstream' in culture. 'Jaws hit the floor over how much they paid,' says one source whose house was outbid. Watch for the Wired trend story: The tech-book boom is back!
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
Monday, December 20, 2004
The Return of the Daytraders is surely the Third of the Four Horsemen of Bubble 2.0, the first two being the Return of Dumb Money and the Return of Mary Meeker.
Sunday, December 19, 2004
Saturday, December 18, 2004
Chucky: A growing number of people are borrowing against their homes to invest in the stock market."—Reuters via Yahoo! News
I knew a guy who borrowed against some of his Bubble 1.0 options to buy more shares in the same company on margin. Need I go on?
Friday, December 17, 2004
Why? Because that's what media stars do in tech bubbles.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
Monday, December 13, 2004
Excellent to see Bubble 1.0 poster child Netpliance, which in 2001 took the remaining $53M left over from its IPO, dropped the whole "Internet apppliance" thing, and started a new life as TippingPoint, finally make good.
Wednesday, December 08, 2004
Good to see, but we have a long way to go before we're back to this. Keep it going!
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
This was originally written by the wife of a friend of mine in 1998. Download the updated guide and play along at home!
Monday, December 06, 2004
Deutsche Bank eats their young.
Note OSTK chart at right. Bubble on!
Sunday, December 05, 2004
Wait, is this the new normal or the new new normal? I can never tell the difference.
Friday, December 03, 2004
If you have to ask...
Monday, November 29, 2004
I'd like to welcome Overstock.com (OSTK) to the Bubble 2.0 Index.
Saturday, November 27, 2004
Hussman's full article made me reach for the Maalox.
Friday, November 26, 2004
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
"Are you gettin' it? Armageddon it!"—Def Leppard
Go go GOOG!
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Monday, November 22, 2004
Sunday, November 21, 2004
Saturday, November 20, 2004
Gimme an I! Gimme a P! Gimme an O! What's that spell?
Friday, November 19, 2004
Thursday, November 18, 2004
With TZOO shares down 12% on the day, it looks like the shorts don't have to wait any longer.
Sobering news to all investors who thought that GOOG's revenue would asymptotically approach the global GDP.
The drumbeat of negative press coverage of NetFlix is growing louder. If they go out of business, do I get to keep the three DVD's I have out?
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
When the oil business went south in the 1980's, Texas banks were swamped by loan defaults. Today, there aren't any Texas banks. A shift to ARM's at a time of rising interest rates seems like a recipe for mortgage defaults. Good luck, CFC.
Ouch. Then again, a half-billion-dollar market cap does seem pretty steep for a video rental store—even a big one.
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Market cap: $1.7B. Annualized revenue run-rate: $38M. Reliving the irrational exuberance of Bubble 1.0: Priceless.
Monday, November 15, 2004
AlwaysOn drives a two-bagger this morning. Glad to see Bubble 2.0 has some cheerleaders. Sad to say, they're the same ones from Bubble 1.0.
Sunday, November 14, 2004
To save you a click, the list includes Google, Travelzoo, Medimmune, and Computer Assciates. It also includes Taser, but with an upside prediction. Travelzoo, trading at 373 times earnings, is the newest addition to the Bubble 2.0 Index.
Saturday, November 13, 2004
Friday, November 12, 2004
Austin scored 133 out of 1,000, which is reassuring given San Jose's score of 509.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Let's all close our eyes, take a cleansing breath, and repeat the Bubble 2.0 mantra: "Sell as you vest... Sell as you vest..." NetFlix (NFLX) insiders seem to know to get while the getting's good, earning them a spot as our newest Bubble 2.0 stock. Charts at right.
Monday, November 08, 2004
It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Rate hikes affect the massive number of people who have taken out adjustable rate mortgages in the past few years, raising their monthly payments beyond their already maxed-out budgets, leading to widespread defaults, crippling the banking industry, resulting in a global recession. Oh man, is it Monday or what?
The report has some simple graphs that illustrate the magnitude of the danger.
Sunday, November 07, 2004
So maybe Bubble 1.0 was really just a "bubblet" and this one is going to be the real bubble. To quote John Kerry, "Would that it were!"
Friday, November 05, 2004
Is it really daring to suggest that Google is in fact worth but a measly $43.39B? If the very suggestion that the company is $7B overvalued trims $4B off its market cap in one day, I'd say the boys at UBS are barely scratching the surface. Bubble on!
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Mmmm... global recession.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Monday, November 01, 2004
Maybe this site should be called Bubble 1.1.
I cried when they cancelled Comdex. Maybe there is hope yet for my T&E budget.
Has anyone considered the possibility that the company isn't worth $300 million? Nah...
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Saturday, October 30, 2004
The halo effect begins.
No industry should be able to operate leaner than computer software. Who will be the Southwest Airlines of the tech world after Shakeout 2.0? You can count on one thing: they'll have a hosted model.
Friday, October 29, 2004
The seduction begins.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
At least they haven't started giving away BMW Z3's yet. Yet.
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Bubble voyeurs will note the addition of the SHOP chart to this site. First-day close: 28.80. Welcome to the pleasuredome.
Do we have another candidate for inclusion in the Bubble 2.0 Index? I think so!
Monday, October 25, 2004
Google is now worth more than General Motors, American Airlines, Starbuck's, and Kodak combined. Perfection indeed.
Saturday, October 23, 2004
The speculative real estate bubble is underwritten by large mortgage lenders such as Countrywide Financial, hence the company's inclusion, alongside PlanetOut(.com) and our poster child Google, in the Bubble 2.0 Index.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Mockery indeed. GOOG:
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
You know, I can tell when the market gets frothy: I start seeing datelines from San Francisco, city of the eternal acid trip. And I'd like to give a shout-out to my dog, Willie Brown!
Monday, October 18, 2004
Yes, money is obsolete. And the browser is dead. And Segways will change the way we build cities. Can I get a "Dow 36,000!"
Sunday, October 17, 2004
Being a native Austinite, I've seen this happen before. It's not pretty. At least this time no one will be able to say they weren't warned.
Saturday, October 16, 2004
Thursday, October 14, 2004
All together now: "Content! Commerce! Community! IPO!" Haven't we seen this movie?
Once burned, twice shy?
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
Apparently back from her self-imposed exile, one-time "Queen of the Net" Mary Meeker fueled the expansion and then predicted the bursting of Bubble 1.0 with remarkable accuracy. Will she be the canary in the coalmine for Bubble 2.0?
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
I remember that level. That was a good level.
Monday, October 11, 2004
Saturday, October 09, 2004
Friday, October 08, 2004
During Bubble 1.0, Jamis McNiven owned and operated Buck's of Woodside, "where people meet in The Valley to hammer out the Information Age." In Bubble 2.0, he writes, as above, for Always On, "the only media brand to combine traditional news and analysis, participatory journalism (blogging), and a powerful social network (AO Zaibatsu)." Again, I'm not making this stuff up.
"Unstoppable trends" I've seen:
- Builders always keep building
- Salesmen always want more
- VC's always get a 3% management fee plus a 20% carry
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Once admired by Fast Company as "the hottest Web celeb since Netscape poster boy Marc Andreessen," Kim once explained push technologies: "You'll never have to install software again."
October 6, 2004, 1:03pm PDT: Bubble 2.0 becomes self-aware.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Note: This one counts as a triple, since it's about a conference called "Web 2.0", the conference costs $2,400 to attend, and the seminar mentioned is being presented by Marc Canter, of DigiScents ("a smell-based platform") fame. (I'm not making this up!)
This site is maintained by Charlie Wood, a Bubble 1.0 survivor and avid blogger. You can reach him directly at firstname.lastname@example.org. His other blogs include Moonwatcher, Globelogger, and Tablog PC.
The site's tagline, "Please God, just one more bubble!", was seen on a bumper sticker in Silicon Valley during the nuclear winter of 2000-2004.