Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Safa on GOOG: It'll Hit 300: "Last month Safa Rashtchy of Piper predicted GOOG would hit 250, then he revised to 275. Now he's saying 300. I get his reports in email, and he has not uploaded this one to the web yet, but in short, he notes Google's expanded product offerings and upgraded ad networks as signs the company will continue to beat Wall St. estimates." —John Battelle

Saturday, May 28, 2005

Running Out of Bubbles: "Remember 'Dow 36,000'? Robert Shiller, who argued against such rationalizations and correctly called the stock bubble in his book 'Irrational Exuberance,' has added an ominous analysis of the housing market to the new edition, and says the housing bubble 'may be the biggest bubble in U.S. history.'" —The New York Times
House of Cards?: "If higher interest rates don't kill the housing boom, what will? Also, finding a bubble-free market and hedging against a bust." —The Wall Street Journal

Friday, May 27, 2005

Bulls, Bears Debate Netflix: "Netflix recently bolstered its position atop the online DVD rental market by striking a deal with Wal-Mart for its subscribers. But chief rival Blockbuster may seek a partnership of its own. Bulls and bears debate how Netflix is faring." —The Wall Street Journal
Good Technology Reaches $200M In Venture Capital: "Wireless e-mail software maker and service provider Good Technology Inc., already one of the best-funded companies in Silicon Valley, has landed another $65 million in venture funding to bring the total amount raised over its five years to more than $200 million." —Blackberry Cool
Is A Consumer VC Bubble Coming?: "There's some emerging data to support the 'consumer bubble' theory.  VentureOne recently reported that in 2003, there were 183 consumer deals and $1.2 billion invested.  In 2004, it jumped to 246 deals and $2.1 billion invested.  I would be surprised if 2005 didn't continue the trend.  Most worrying, this month's featured event at Harvard Business School Club of Boston is, you guessed it, 'Emerging Trends in Consumer Technologies'.  Uh oh.  Anytime HBS jumps on a bandwagon, you know it's the top of the curve." —Jeff Bussang (IDG)
Round Two Nails Round One: "Bart Decrem, a Mozilla alumnus has just nailed funding for his start-up, Round Two. The company got off the ground in April 2005. The funding has come from Bessemer Ventures. It is a small round - said to be in the $0.75-to-$1.5 million range. The company is building a new Firefox browser with special focus on security initially and other add-ons later. More details later. Back in the day, Decrem co-founded Eazel, an open source start-up that was creating a UI for Linux." —Om Malik on Broadband

Thursday, May 26, 2005

Hedging against a housing bubble: "The new service from HedgeStreet lets investors bet on the direction of home prices in six U.S. markets—Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego and San Francisco. The idea is to hedge against a housing bubble bursting, which in many of the nation's hottest housing markets would likely lead to a sudden drop in house prices." —CNBC
Swimming a 'froth' of worry in housing, hedge funds: "As a warning, Alan Greenspan's comment about 'froth' in the U.S. housing market last week seemed a lot more serious than his comment about 'irrational exuberance' in the stock market almost a decade ago." —MarketWatch
The Cost of All Those McMansions: "It's too soon to say if there's a bubble, but one thing's for sure: Resources going into housing could fuel sectors that better drive growth." —BusinessWeek
The Long Tail of U.S. Real Estate: "The trouble with thinking in long tail terms is that you can't stop thinking in long tail terms. After a while, pretty much everything you see looks like a long tail, even it's really just commonplace power laws, Zipf distributions, or whatever you want to call it." —Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)

Kedrosky with a stand-up double: real estate and Long Tail! Nice!

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Is the bubble back?: "Median pre-money valuations of U.S. venture-backed companies in the first quarter reached $15 million - the highest since 2001 - driven by an increase in first-round valuations." —Marc Goldberg (Occam)

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Google insiders sell over a billion dollars of stock in one day: "Shattering all previous dot.com records, on May 4th Google registered its largest single instance of insider liquidation to date.  Over 1 billion dollars worth sold in under 24 hours." —F---edGoogle

Sunday, May 22, 2005

The Good News and the Bad News About Interest Rates: "This is the throw-in-the-towel time when all the naysayers decide that the optimists must have been right and the housing market really will keep booming into the foreseeable future. For Internet stocks, it would be circa November 2000." —BusinessWeek

Saturday, May 21, 2005

Greenspan Is Concerned About 'Froth' in Housing: "'Without calling the overall national issue a bubble, it's pretty clear that it's an unsustainable underlying pattern,' Mr. Greenspan told the Economic Club of New York at the Hilton New York hotel in Midtown." —The New York Times

Oh go ahead, Alan, call it a bubble.

Friday, May 20, 2005

KPCB's Hiring Spurt: "Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers--the VC firm that funded Google, Sun Microsystems, Genentech, and many others--has added four staff members in the past five months." —Deal Flow
Next tech deals will be mid-sized ones: "The market action for mergers and acquisitions in the technology industry is about to move to the middle, according to someone who knows the M&A landscape." — MarketWatch
JPMorgan Chase: Tech scene is getting brighter: "Investment bank says the mood was upbeat at its annual get-together of leading and up-and-coming technology companies." —News.com
Austin economy gaining strength: "The Austin area has turned the corner and is resuming its claim to having one of the fastest-growing economies in the state, according to a new index." —Austin Business Journal

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Netflix Takes Over Wal-Mart DVD Rentals (AP): "AP - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is turning over its online DVD rental business to Netflix Inc., signaling that the world's largest retailer couldn't beat the Internet upstart at its own game." —Yahoo! News: Business

Chalk one up for the little guy. Go, NFLX! Now if they would just open a little store in the shopping center in my neighborhood and hire a 16-year-old kid on a moped to deliver movies to my house... Oh, wait.

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Valet Parking, Comfy Seats, Nice Meal (This Is Flying?): "Companies in the United States own or operate more than 5,000 private jets. Also, manufacturing is rebounding sharply after a post-9/11 slump, with shipments up 21.1 percent in the first quarter of 2005." —The New York Times
Howard Anderson's "Good-Bye to Venture Capital": "Yeah – the markets are rational again – but isn’t that just a cycle (I smiled as a wrote that – at least they aren’t irrationally horrifying anymore like they were in 2002.)" —Brad Feld (Mobius)

Monday, May 16, 2005

A Better Bubble?: "Vonage has just raised an awesome $200 million in additional venture capital. Skype has built a huge networks of users, most of whom contribute nothing to the company’s coffers; but Skype is rumored to have turned down nine digit buyout offers." —AlwaysOn Network

Sunday, May 15, 2005

Scary, Scary? Quite Contrary: "The economy is slowing, real wage growth is nowhere to be seen, the consumer is finally rolling over and the Fed needs to raise rates to fight inflation. Yep, it's time to buy stocks." —The Wall Street Journal

Saturday, May 14, 2005

Our Schizophrenic Housing Market (at Forbes.com): "When it comes to homes in the U.S., you can forget everything you know about supply and demand." —Yahoo! Finance: CFC
Sleazy Salesman Finds Dot-Com Stock Dupes ... After The Bubble: "The attorney general of Missouri is going after scammers who sold worthless dot-com stock. That's a blast from the past, not only to those of us in the here and now, but apparently also to those who fell for the scam: it happened in 2002." —Techdirt

Friday, May 13, 2005

Bay Area employment rebound predicted: "Thirty-nine percent of Bay Area CEOs and top business executives say they will increase their Bay Area workforce in the next six months, according to a survey for the Bay Area Council. Another 51 percent will keep their current regional workforce stable and only 7 percent plan layoffs, the council says." —Silicon Valley Business Journal
Travelzoo Stock Up on Takeover Speculation (AP): "Investors moved into shares of Travelzoo Inc. as speculation heated up Thursday it might be the next Web site to be snapped up in the ongoing consolidation of online travel agencies." —Yahoo! Finance: TZOO
Monster Boosted By Tightening Jobs Market: "Piper Jaffray rates the company at 'outperform' with a $41 price target." —Forbes

Thursday, May 12, 2005

Profit leaps at Nvidia: "Graphics chipmaker Nvidia Corp. late Thursday said net income more than tripled in the first quarter, sprinting past Wall Street's expectations." —MarketWatch
Dow Drops 111 on Wal-Mart Profit Warning: "Stocks tumbled sharply Thursday as a second-quarter profit warning from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. overshadowed strong economic news and a sharp drop in oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points for the second time this week." —AP Headlines
Silicon Valley construction on upswing: "Construction activity in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties is gaining steam, according to first-quarter numbers from the Construction Industry Research Board of Burbank." —Silicon Valley Business Journal
Into the Gildercosm: "George Gilder recently stopped by for a visit. You may remember him from the telecom bubble when his bullish newsletter, Gilder Technology Report, could goose stock prices" —BusinessWeek Deal Flow

The futurists return.

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Supernova pre-pre-party: Rocking like it's 1999.: "I just came back from a great networking dinner hosted by Kevin Werbach as a pre-pre Supernova get-together. You can see a preliminary guest list – there were well over 150 people at the confab. The evening had a certain 1999-esque flair but with a big difference – we each had to pony up $20 for the Thai food (which by the way, was very tasty!). And it was a cash bar!" —Charlene Li (Forrester)

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Markets shaken by hedge fund rumors: "Markets wobbled Tuesday amid speculation that some hedge funds were in trouble over bets on General Motors Corp. and positions in convertible bonds." —MarketWatch

Monday, May 09, 2005

AV to start investing from $525M fund: "After raising its $525 million ninth fund, Austin Ventures LP is set to begin making investments by late summer or early fall, the venture capital firm said Monday." —Austin Business Journal
A Better Bubble?: "So my hope is that, since Internet Bubble Two is so soon after Internet Bubble One, we will postpone IPO fever.  Vonage and Skype which I have been blogging about and all of other interesting startups will be able to do a better job of company building if they do it on private capital than if they go public before profitability." —Tom Evslin
Starting up again, but slower: "Technology professionals have reason to be cautiously optimistic about new jobs at start-up companies." —News.com
Net phone venture peaking?: "A $200 million investment in Vonage may be the last of the big spends on Net phones." —News.com
Fortune Cookie: "Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose your job. These economic downturns are very difficult to predict, but sophisticated econometric modeling houses like Data Resources and Chase Econometrics have successfully predicted 14 of the last 3 recessions." —The Fortune Cookie Feed

Saturday, May 07, 2005

Will housing bubble burst?: "Some economists have watched the soaring home prices with alarm as well, fearful the steep rise could lead to a plunge. They see a combustible mix of low interest rates, easy credit and rising speculation, coupled with a widely held belief among buyers—especially younger ones—that real estate values never decline." —San Jose Mercury News

Friday, May 06, 2005

Online Exuberance: "Everyone knows how aggressive Forbe's online strategy is, including adding podcasts. And indeed, a bullish statement attributed to the Forbes.com president at a recent speech in an article by BtoBOnline has been going the rounds online." —BusinessWeek blogspotting
Hiring Bankers - Pick the Lowest Number: "I have been spending some time lately listening to banker's pitches.  That's a good thing.  It means the IPO and M&A markets are healthy and people want to buy the businesses we've invested in." —Fred Wilson (Union Square)
On Pinning Plans to Restroom Walls: "From an Information Week article on the resurgence of venture capital activity in Silicon Valley, there is something accidentally appropriate about someone pinning a 1999-style business plan to a restroom wall..." —Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

U.S. online marketing forecast: $26 billion by 2010: "This is not the return of 'The Bubble'. The growth is coming from marketers having to make tough decisions about allocating scarce advertising dollars – in many cases, funding online channels from traditional channels. Back in 1999/2000, spending often came from exuberant spending, fueled by venture money." —Charlene Li (Forrester)

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Were those the golden years?: "Business is booming, but it is less fun. Is Kottke right, and will we look back at 2002-2004 as the golden years of the internet, pre-Web 2.0?" —Geodog
Red-hot housing markets stir fears of busts: "The number of areas across the United States with real estate booms grew nearly two-thirds last year to 55, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said, warning that these booms may be followed by busts." —MSNBC

Monday, May 02, 2005

Bubble Indicators: Ferrari Sales in SV: "You know you are in a bubble when Ferrari opens a new dealership in Redwood City. There is nothing like a $200,000 Ferrari to go with your freshly minted dollars, the dollars you just generated by flipping your latest start-up to say a Yahoo, Google or even Microsoft. If signs of SV optimism are directly correlated with Ferrari sales, then we are in for a nice ride ... pun intended. " —Om Malik via Ross Mayfield