Thursday, March 31, 2005

Jumping Into The Hedges: "Inflation looks tame—for now—but by the time it roars again, investors will be scrambling for cover. Be prepared."—Forbes
Is momentum back?: "GuruNet surged 11 percent Thursday, bucking negative sentiment across the Internet and the broader market, and raising suspicions that momentum players are coming back into the market."—MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Bubble 2.0: "You went to a great party, had too good of a time, woke up with a terrible hangover, and promised yourself you wouldn't do that again. Then the people who threw the party invite you to the next one. What do you do?  Go, of course. I wonder if that's what's happening with all the activity in and around Web 2.0 right now."—Fred Wilson (Union Square Ventures)
An Industry's Temperature: "There's a ton of money to be invested, and venture capitalist seem to finally be moving in early stage deals- even if they aren't talking about them, and therefore may not show up in those quarterly numbers."—BusinessWeek Deal Flow
Quick, someone hire a CFO for Ellison: "Bob Kagle, venture capitalist at Benchmark and an early backer of eBay, recently told us: 'Venture industry activity has really picked up over the last few months. Decision cycles are speeding up, valuation levels are going up, and due diligence is going down.' Here's why."—SiliconBeat
Survey: CEOs of fast-growing tech companies 'extremely confident': "Confident technology CEOs are shrugging off economic and security worries and focusing inward to strengthen their companies and increase growth, according to Deloitte & Touche USA LLP's 2005 CEO Survey of the fastest growing technology companies in North America."—Silicon Valley Business Journal

Monday, March 28, 2005

New construction up sharply in Silicon Valley: "The value and volume of new construction in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties took a pronounced leap skyward in the first two months of the year, according to new data compiled by the Construction Industry Research Board based on local building permits."—Silicon Valley Business Journal

Sunday, March 27, 2005

Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble?: "The Daily Deal says social media (e.g. blogs, wikis, RSS, etc.) is not a bubble. Hmmm. I hope they're right. I'd like to think that we learned something from the dot-com era."—Steve Rubel
The Hedge Fund Bubble: "There is must-read piece in the NY Times this weekend on the hedge fund 'bubble'. Whether you are a bubble believer or not, the growth in assets in said category from $40-billion to $1-trillion in fifteen years is cause enough to be paying close attention."—Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)

Saturday, March 26, 2005

Time For VCs To Start Pitching Startups?: "Going the acquisition route as opposed to taking funding and shooting for an IPO may have limited the upside of the founders, but the entrepreneurs are still making out well. VCs may discover that they need to rethink the 'value proposition' they offer to a new generation of hot startups that seem more skeptical of the typical VC route."—Techdirt

Friday, March 25, 2005

2005 is like 1997: "Earlier this week, Zeldman riffed on the Blog/Brand panel at SXSW and Jim Coudal’s question, ‘Should your blog have a business?’ As Jeffrey notes, ‘do it right, and you might be free to quit your day job.’ You may also become an accidental blogger, as Molly discussed, a traffic driving pundit like Glenn Flieschman, a manifesto machine like Scoble, or design a killer web app like Jason Fried. We hope to have all of those bloggers, including myself, and more at the next BBS 05. We may even add a panel on how to quit your day job. As Mike Davidson noted, in his SXSW wrap-up, 2005 is indeed the next 1997. Except this time let’s do it with less foosball tables, real business plans, balance sheets, and less greed."—Blog Business Summit
Internet IPOs 2.0: "Fastclick gives IPO investors a chance to place their bets on the burgeoning Internet advertising market. Expect the company's IPO to turn in a solid first day followed by solid gains in early trading. But the stock isn't yet a candidate for your kids' college fund because the company has a limited history and operates in a rapidly evolving industry with a new and unproven business model. The company's long-term prospects are uncertain."—Forbes

That's it. That is exactly it. The bubble is back, baby!

Thursday, March 24, 2005 - The After Maths: "There are enough whispers of the return of a bubble in the RSS/new media world to try and figure out whether this was a $5M or a $50M deal (see, I am not the only one wondering)."—Jeff Clavier (SoftTech)

Wednesday, March 23, 2005

1040 for former employees: "Income tax return for recently laid-off dot-com employees with no real experience or talent."—The Manbottle Library of Questionable Humor

Thanks, Andy!

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Podcasting hype inflating the balloon?: "Word in the newsroom Monday was that multi-billions of dollars were being spent to acquire Internet companies. In my newsreader, I learned podcasters and web loggers and other techies will confer in Seattle in June at Gnomedex 5.0. And the Charlotte Observer online told me the Pitts Baptist Church has begun offering MP3 downloads of weekly sermons. All this enthusiasm, optimism, and spending reminds me of the parties of 1999..."—AlwaysOn Network

Monday, March 21, 2005

Are Socialites Still Networking?: "Social networking sites were all the buzz last year, and Friendster was spreading like a social disease. Where are they now? By Joanna Glasner."—Wired News
Jeremy from Yahoo talks about why Flickr excited him: "I totally agree. It's fun to be in the industry again. What a turnaround over 1999/2002."—Robert Scoble

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Later, when the drugs wear off: "Nowadays it's gotten to the height of ridiculousness. There isn't even a boom, just a bunch of insiders who think it's cool they're inside. No one has made one cent off podcasting and already the NY Times says there's a business model and tries to give the market to their friends (who haven't shipped anything), and people at TED are ooohing and ahhing, and wondering how they can get in on the IPO. But these are the exact same people that got so many to think they were the brains behind the last booms. No wonder they want to do it again. It's really profitable, for some."—Scripting News

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Fed revelation: Boom stock seemed really high: "Once-secret government documents reveal that Linux stocks were priced high to economists. No confirmation yet on that Bigfoot thing."—
New price peak for Bay Area homes: "Home prices in the Bay Area moved up to a new peak last month, as sales stayed at near-record levels, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla-based real estate information service."—Silicon Valley Business Journal

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

"Of Course, There's No Bubble": "'We're still getting started,' says real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran, who has advice about buying, selling, and hot spots across the U.S."—BusinessWeek
Real Estate: Avoid the Burn: "In a market this hot, home buyers and investors can easily get singed. Here's what could happen. Plus: Tips to get you through unscathed."—BusinessWeek

Monday, March 14, 2005

So Many Venture Firms, So Little IRR: "While venture firms may be having trouble finding quality deals into which to put their money, the same is apparently not true for LPs in venture funds. New funds are being financed in droves, with there being more venture funds in the U.S. at the end of 2004 than there were at the peak of the technology boom back in 2000."—Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)Overcapitalization is gooooood.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Online dating firm Spark files for $75 million IPO: "Spark Networks, operator of and, filed for an initial public offering Thursday in a bid to raise up to $75 million with underwriter Piper Jaffray."—MarketWatch Internet Industry News

Online dating firm files for IPO. 'Nuff said.
Double bubble oil and trouble: "How fitting that as just as Wall Street marks the peak of one of the greatest buying frenzies since the Dutch tulip craze this week that another bubble begins to boil."—MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Nasdaq's 5-Year Anniversary: "Was it really only five years ago that the Nasdaq peaked at 5,048? To me it seems like a century ago, a more hopeful and happy, yet naive time. My world view has changed since then -- more due to the events of 9/11 and its repercussions than the tech bubble bursting. But how much has the perspective of investors changed since then? Quite a bit, a new study from Schwab finds."—Well Spent

NASDAQ 5K. Those were the days. I think I'm going to tear up.

SEC to issue "guidance" about options expensing soon: "The Securities and Exchange Commission will issue 'guidance' this month for companies that must comply with a requirement to deduct the cost of employee stock options from profits, SEC Chairman William Donaldson said Wednesday. High-technology companies in particular have opposed the rule, which has several models for valuing options. Donaldson did not give an exact date for an SEC announcement."—MarketPulse

Big money, no whammies! Big money, no whammies!

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Slump wears on valley's spirit: "Five years after the dot-com bust, the valley is still haunted by the reminders of its recent past. The vacant offices. The relentless job cuts. The exodus of the unemployed. The bitter investors who lost billions. The exorbitant housing prices."—

I wouldn't worry too much about it. Hangovers go away, even really bad ones. Anyone remember Texas in the 1980's? It's like Robert Earl says, "The road goes on forever and the party never ends."
Guess the bubble players [Flickr]: "pkedrosky posted a photo:

Guess the bubble players

Can you label these players from the dot-com bubble days?"—Paul Kedrosky (UCSD)

Sunday, March 06, 2005

February short interest: "Internet stocks with highest short interest as % of float: OSTK (48%), TZOO (45%), NFLX (42%), PCLN (39%)."—The Internet Stock Blog

Saturday, March 05, 2005

The Truth About Bubbles: "Among my Bubble Era Paraphernalia Collection is Sun trade show chachki with the trademarked 'We're the dot in .com' slogan on it. You could probably start a company with the money Sun spent on getting that trademark in the US and Europe alone. Was Sun stupid? No. Were the VCs that invested in bubble dot coms stupid? Some were but not most. Fact is, during a bubble, if you're in the industry that becomes the target -- entrepreneur, financier, consultant, analyst, journalist..."—AlwaysOn Network

Friday, March 04, 2005

Dotcom Echos: "I heard echoes of the dotcoms this week. Terms like click-through, impressions, stickiness, and friction were all tossed around the discussions about blogging and ad revenue. Ad placement, weight, and tracking eye movements were also discussed and for the first time ever I actually cited a Jakob Nielsen article to support my argument."—Blog Business Summit

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

The RSS Bubble is Here: "Splash! Fwoop! Znorf. It’s the sound of nextgen RSS plays parachuting into the Valley, Rte. 128, and everywhere there’s a broadband connection. Odeo, Brightcove, ourmedia, the Times–by this time next spring the forest will be thick with bees circling in search of unpolinated flowers. The RSS Bubble is here." —Steve Gillmor